Abstract

Manifold polarity, first identified as a binary property in Paper 1, is more accurately described as a continuous projection of the patient’s covariance shift onto the circuit’s fixed measurement axis. The sign determines polarity direction; the magnitude determines signal strength. Two patient populations emerge: strongly polar (chb03, chb21) whose polarity is stable across configurations, and weakly polar (chb01, chb05, chb07, chb14) whose polarity direction is configuration-dependent.

Hardware Validation Summary

All results from IBM Torino (Heron r1), 1024 shots, no error mitigation.

Configuration Channels Qubits Raw AUC Oracle-Cal AUC N Inverted
CH8 @ 1.95s 8 17 0.524 0.637 3
CH8 @ 20s 8 17 0.404 0.605 6
CH12 12 25 0.522 0.565 4
CH16 16 33 0.512 0.512 0

All AUC values labeled “oracle-calibrated” assume known polarity. CH16 collapses to chance — 246 CZ gates exceed the coherence budget.

Pre-Registered Prediction Outcomes

Honest reporting of pre-registered predictions against actual hardware results:

chb21: Confirmed — inverted polarity consistent across CH8@1.95s, CH8@20s, and CH12.
chb14: Partial — standard at CH8@1.95s and CH12, but inverted at CH8@20s. Configuration-dependent.
Cross-config consistency: Prediction not met. Only 3/7 subjects show consistent polarity across all configurations. Polarity direction is not purely geometric — it depends on circuit depth and channel selection.

Patient Subset Rationale

7 patients selected from CHB-MIT: chb01, chb03, chb05, chb07, chb11, chb14, chb21. Selection criteria: sufficient seizure events for LOSO validation, consistent recording montage, and coverage of both polarity populations identified in Paper 1 simulation results.

Status

Manuscript finalized. TechRxiv submission pending platform reopening (expected April 2026). No DOI or preprint link available yet.

← Paper 1 Findings ↑ Paper 3 →